Talking NFL

If you’re a football fan that lives in, west or south of Pennsylvania, and are all ready sick to death of the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry in baseball, then I’ve got some bad news for you.  Because the renewed Border Wars between the Patriots and Jets are about to get bludgeoned to death by NFL previews in sports newspapers, TV shows and blogs everywhere (obviously, I’m not above said bludgeoning…).  That being said, it’s with good reason that this is the #1 story line in the AFC East…

New England Patriots (2006 results:  12-4, lost in AFC Championship Game):

The Good:  Went on free agent spending spree that made Dan Snyder queasy.  Core of the team returns, they’re the trending pick to win it all (hopefully meaning we won’t have to hear Rodney ‘Dangerfield’ Harrison yelling “no respect!” all season long), and I hear their coach and QB are halfway decent…

The Bad:  Since pessimism is secondary in nature to native New Englanders, let’s poke a couple more holes in my hometown juggernaut (I listed a few others here):

- Loss of Corey Dillon.  True, Corey was starting to look his age, but there was one area you could absolutely count on him, and that was scoring in the red zone.  Dillon had 13 rushing TD’s last year, and 11 of them came from within the 8 yard line!  Someone else will have to be the short down specialist this year (my money’s on FB Heath Evans, but will he be as productive?), so keep an eye on the Pats red zone offense…

- Middle Linebacker.  I have two jarring memories from the AFC Championship Game.  One is throwing up.  The other is staring in disbelief at the TV, then asking the Pats fan next to me in the bar, “hey, who the hell is # 52 and why is he starting on defense?”  To which the guy replied, “I have no idea.  On either question.”

When you give a second year player his first career start in a conference championship game, that means you have an issue at that position.  Yet the Patriots did next to nothing to bolster their interior linebacker core in the off season.  True, Adalius Thomas can play the position, but he’s more of an outside backer.  So is Vrabel.  And the two experienced starters at that position on the roster (Bruschi and Seau) are a combined 72 years old.

The Colts came back in the 2nd half of that game because Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark exploited the middle of the field the way Posh Spice has exploited the recent media crush on her husband’s new soccer contract (holy crap, can she please go away now?).  I’m worried that it could happen to the Pats again.  (On a lighter note, I now know who # 52 is {Eric Alexander}.  On a darker note, he was horrific against the Colts.)

The Prediction:  Bottom line, despite my quibbling above, I see them as better than last year, but not as good as the ‘03 & ‘04 Super Bowl teams (they went 14-2 both seasons), so I’m going with the in-between:  13-3, 1st place AFC East  

New York Jets (2006 results:  10-6, lost in AFC Wild Card Game):

The Good:  I love what the Jets did in the draft.  They had two guys rated highly on their board (CB Darrelle Revis and LB David Harris), and rather than keep their fingers crossed to see if they’d still be around when they picked, they traded their way up to nab both of them.  Plus, they pants the Bears in that Thomas Jones trade, which will greatly improve a running attack that was ranked 20th in the league last year.  On top of that, no major free agent losses.

The Bad:  That Pete Kendall situation needs to be resolved tout suite.  On defense, they still have several players (DT Dewayne Robertson and LB Jon Vilma among them) that are better suited for the 4-3 defense rather than the 3-4 that Mangini prefers.

But the biggest thing holding the Jets back is their quarterback.  Don’t get me wrong, Chad Pennington deserved that Comeback Player of the Year Award, and started all 16 games for the first time in his career.  But he only had one more TD than INT (17-16), and his struggles with the long ball are well documented.  And who knows if he’ll stay injury free two years in a row?

If the Jets want to be an upper eschelon team, then not only does their coach need to be able to match wits with the Belichick’s and the Dungy’s of the league (which he can).  Their QB also has to measure up to the Tom Brady’s and Peyton Manning’s of the conference.  Right now, he doesn’t.

The Prediction: 11-5, 2nd place AFC East

Buffalo Bills (2006 results:  7-9):

The Bills are an absolutely infuriating team to try and figure out.  They were one of only 3 teams that had five rookies start seven games or more.  So naturally in the off season they decided to get…younger?!  With the loss of veterans Willis McGahee, Nate Clements, Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher-Baker, several rookies will be counted on as starters yet again.

Fortunately, first round selection Marshawn Lynch should be a big improvement over the dissapointing McGahee.  He has a excellent mix of speed and power, and will be equally dangerous catching passes out of the backfield. Combine him with a rebuilt offensive line (led by free agent prize G Derrick Dockery), stud WR Lee Evans, and improving QB J.P. Losman (don’t look now, but he finished last season with an 84.9 QB rating, just shy of Tom Brady at 87.9), and the Bills offensive could be very effective this season.

Unfortunately, they’ll need to be in order to help out the defense.  The Bills were ranked 28th against the run last season, and although 2nd round pick LB Paul Posluszney and veteran DT Darwin Walker will help, they will still struggle as a unit.

But it’s the loss of Clements that will really hurt the defense.  I can argue with the Bills decision not to pony up the whopping $80 million the 49ers offered him, but I can disagree with them not drafting one cornerback, and only picking up injury-plagued free agent Jason Webster as a plan B.  This means the Bills will be undermanned going into battle against the stud wideouts of the AFC East, and that could really hurt.

The Prediction: They may struggle again this year, but I do like the overall plan that the Bills have in place.  Gotta love 81-year old Marv Levy trusting his team to a bunch of young punks!  8-8, 3rd place AFC East

Miami Dolphins (2006 results:  6-10):

One the other hand, I have no idea what the Dolphins plan is right now.  I do know this; by Week 9 of this season, Fins fans may be pulling a Captain Kirk from Star Trek 2:    

Replacing “Khan” with “SABAN!”, of course.  I mean, the guy might as well have burned down Dolphin stadium on his way out the door.

So why else should you be down on the Fins this year?  Consider:

- They signed 37-year old QB Trent Green, not the most mobile of chaps, to take the snaps behind  a sub-par offensive line.
- RB Ronnie Brown has yet to emerge as a prime time player, scoring only 10 TD’s in 2 seasons with Miami.
- They lost leading WR Wes Welker to the Patriots, and TE Randy McMichael to the Rams.  The number 2 man, Chris Chambers, is not off to a great start this year.
- 5 out of 7 starters in the Phins front seven (Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor, Joey Porter, Keith Traylor, and Vonnie Holliday) are 30 or older.
- They lose 1 home game, thanks to their contest in London with the Giants.
- They get the Pats and the Bills on the road in December.  Not good for a warm weather team.

Could they get on the right path with new Coach Cam Cameron and GM Randy Mueller?  Possibly.  But this year is about recovering and rebuilding from the Saban hangover.  And it’s going to hurt like hell. (On the plus side, they’ll probably beat the Patriots at home again this year, continuing an annual tradition of having that as the lone highlight on their NFL Season in Review DVD.)

The Prediction:  3-13, 4th place AFC East

And so my 1st division preview has all 4 teams finishing in the exact same order.  I know, way to go out on a limb, Brian.  Trust me, I’ve got some surprises lined up for future previews…so stay tuned, kids!

NFL Preview, 2007, Regular Season, Predictions, AFC East, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, hate mail from, Miami Dolphins, fans, in 5…4…3…2