Talking NFL

“Coach ran after ANOTHER ice cream van?!”

Denver Broncos (2006 results:  9-7):

I’ve all ready talked at length about what I like about these guys, so let’s keep this one short. You know they’ll be able to run the ball well, Jay Cutler is the real deal, and their first two draft picks (Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder) should help their biggest area of weakness, the D-line, right away. Yes, the #2 receiver spot is a big question mark, and losing Al Wilson will definitely hurt. But they have more than enough talent on the rest of the team (offensive line, secondary, special teams) to make up for that.

Most importantly, Mike Shanahan has a career coaching record of 131-81, and is now the 2nd longest tenured coach in the NFL (behind Jeff Fisher). When in doubt about a football team, check out their head coach. That’s like, really, really, really important in the NFL.

The Prediction: 11-5, 1st place AFC West

Which is a convienent segway to the…

San Diego Chargers (2006 results: 14-2, Lost in AFC Divisional Round)

Let’s get this out of the way now – pound for pound, the Chargers have more talent than any other team in the NFL. You’re talking about pro-bowlers Antonio Gates, Lorenzo Neal, Nick Hardwick, Philip Rivers (just don’t get me started on him going over Tom Brady…), Marcus McNeill, Jamal Williams, Shawne Merriman, Nate Kaeding, Kassim Osgood, and David Binn, who are all returning. Oh, and have you heard of that LT guy? He’s all right, I guess…

So why am I not picking the Chargers to win their division, let alone Super Bowl XLII? Three reasons:

1)

Yes, it’s THAT big a deal. A.J. Smith has done a phenomenal job of amassing talent for his team, but he completely screwed the pooch (Michael Vick style) with the coaching staff. To have this type of talent squandered on a coach with a 58-82-1 lifetime record is absurd. If I was a GTP faithful, I’d be pissed.

And if I sound heated about this, it’s because I have personal experience being in this exact same situation 10 years ago with the 1997 New England Patriots.

The Patriots had just lost Super Bowl 31, but looked poised to make the next step under Bill Parcells. The roster was loaded with talent; Drew Bledsoe, Curtis Martin, Bruce Armstrong, Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Ted Johnson, Teddy Bruschi, Willie McGinest – ALL either in or near their primes. But the Tuna walked, still angry about a pissing contest that he lost to Kraft over the drafting of Terry Glenn. Enter Pete Carroll.

At first, everything seemed fine – the Pats got off to a blistering 4-0 start. But then the penalties mounted; as did the sloppy play. Some of the better coaches in the league (Enter Shanahan) made the Patriots look silly. And Petey was simply overmatched, despite all the talent at his disposal. They held on to win the division, but got bounced on the road in Pittsburgh in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

I see history repeating itself here with the Chargers.

The Prediction: 10-6, 2nd place AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (2006 results: 9-7, Lost in AFC Wild Card Round)

So let’s see…what’s not to like about the Chiefs this year?

I mean besides from LJ’s holdout continuing to drag on, the retirement of Will Shields, the devastating loss this week of stud free-agent signing left tackle Damion McIntosh, the fact that a career journeyman back-up (Damon Huard) and unknown 2nd year man Brodie Croyle are duking it out for QB duties, the fact that they STILL don’t have a # 1 WR, and Tony Gonzalez is past his prime, Jared Allen’s suspension (and his suspect advice to rookies), the fact that starting corners Ty Law and Patrick Surtain are losing their wheels as well, and the fact that they get both the Colts and the Bears on the road this year.

…great googly moogily.

(Hey, Mars, Inc. - that’s 2 old Snickers ads I’ve posted in a week - how about some free can-day?!)

…as for the Chefs, screw it, I’m picking ‘em last.

The Prediction: 5-11, 4th place AFC West

Update: Apparently, Damion McIntosh’s injury was not that serious, and he could be back for the season opener. Good news. Also, Brodie Croyle looks like the favorite to start the season. Bad news.

Oakland Raiders (2006 results: 2-14)

OK, so let’s start with the good news: Art Shell is out, JaMarcus Russell is in (well, assuming he ever gets signed), and the defense is still a vastly underrated unit. I think that’s enough to just overtake the Chiefs. Just barely.

Now let’s discuss Head Coach Lane Kiffin. Granted, it’s a bit hypocritical for me to bash a team for hiring a young coach, when I cheer for a baseball team that ended 86 years of futility by hiring a 28 year old General Manager/Wonder Boy…

…and a child shall lead them.

But keep in mind that by then, Theo had over 10 years of baseball operations experience, including Director of Baseball Operations with the Padres. As for NFL comparisons, when Eric Mangini was named HC of the NYJ at age 35, he had 6 years of assistant coaching experience with the Patriots. New Steelers coach Mike Tomlin had 6 years of work with the Buccaneers and Vikings.

Lane Kiffin has exactly 0 years of experience in the NFL. And 0 years experience as a head coach in college.

Then again, maybe he’ll adjust well from the college ranks to the pros. Look how well Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban did…

Remember when you were a kid, and you’d be telling your friends some ridiculous, exaggerated story about how you did something that was so cool (like nail a jump shot from half-court), and then everyone would try to one-up your story? There was always that one kid who pushed it too far, and claimed he hit a shot from the other side of the court, blindfolded, left handed, while eating ice cream. Then there was a pause, and everyone called BS on his story.

…somehow that makes me think of Al Davis telling the rest of the team owners that he just hired Lane Kiffin. I just imagine everyone going, “HA! Good one Al…”, and Al saying, “No, I’m serious! He’s going to be great!”

…followed by awkward silence.

The Prediction: 6-10, 3rd place AFC West

…a quick house-keeping note; sorry I wasn’t able to post the 2nd half of the fantasy value picks article. I ran low on time, and we had a few technical glitches with the site…

Fortunately, things are going swimingly now, so we’ll lead off with that segment next week. Enjoy the weekend, and enjoy those pre-season games!!

NFL Preview, 2007, Regular Season, Predictions, AFC West, Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs