Talking NFL

The NFC Norris Division is home to some of the proudest teams in NFL history.  When you hear the name, think of Papa Bear Halas & The Monsters of the Midway; Bobby Layne and the 3 NFL titles won by the Lions in the 50’s.  Coach Lombardi and the Packers dynasty of the 60’s; Alan Page, Jim Marshall and the rest of the Purple People Eaters.

But don’t think about the 2007 version of these teams.  Ugh…

Yes, the Bears just won the NFC Championship, but I’m predicting they will fall victim to the NFC Super Bowl Curse that took last year off on the Seahawks (when asked about taking a year off, the NFC Super Bowl Curse responded that it just needed to refocus and spend some quality time with it’s family.  Now it’s wants to be paid Madden Curse type money, so it’s back with a vengeance…).  As for the Lions, Packers and Vikings?  Last season they went a collective 2-10 against AFC East teams.  Oh my.

So here’s the big question:  does the Bears impending demise mean that a certain aging quarterback will get one more shot at post-season glory? Well, sort of…

Chicago Bears (2006 results:  13-3, lost in Super Bowl):

The Good:  It may not be the 46 defense of the ‘85 Bears, but it’s not that far off it, either.  The Bears led the league with 44 takeaways in ‘06, and are led by defensive stalwarts LB Brian Urlacher, DT Tommie Harris, and CB Charles Tillman.  The Bears also have one of the best special teams units in the league.  Place kicker Robbie Gould and kick return cover man Brendon Ayanbadejo made the Pro Bowl last year.  As did Devin Hester, who, to put it simply, is electric.  (Boogie-Woogie-Woogie)

The Bad:  Let’s begin by playing a game of “I’d rather” regarding Bears QB Rex Grossman…

“I’d rather wear mascara in a prison shower than have Rex Grossman as my starting QB.” (…good one, Pudge!)

“I’d rather get the Clockwork Orange treatment and be forced to watch ‘Victoria Beckham: Coming To America‘ than have Rex Grossman as my starting QB.”

“I’d rather have Lindsay Lohan driving straight at me on Sunset Blvd at 3 am than have Rex Grossman as my starting QB.”

“I’d rather be Michael Vick than have Rex Grossman as my starting QB.”

Went one to far, but you get the point.  For any Rex apologists out there, one question;  you saw the Super Bowl right?  You saw those 2 AFLAC ducks he threw to the Colts defense, right?  And the 2 fumbles he had?  Good luck with that…

Speaking of the offense, the Bears let Thomas Jones via free agency to the Jets (oh, wait, it was a trade that just felt like the Bears got nothing in return, my bad), and will feature third year back Cedric Benson, who had 2 carries for -1 yards in the Super Bowl, and less than 1000 yards rushing in 2 seasons.

By the way, have you taken a look at age of the Bears offensive line lately?  LG Ruben Brown is 35, LT John Tait is 32, RT Fred Miller is 34, and center Olin Kreutz is 30.  Yikes.  A few months ago I talked about the danger of having a bunch of key guys getting old in the same year (with regards to the Chiefs).  That principle could apply here as well.

As for the defense, there’s the well documented release of Tank Johnson on the defensive line.  This means the Bears are thin at DT after Pro Bowler Harris.  And there’s still the potential holdout LB Lance Briggs (although the majority of opinions out there seem to be similar to this one from ChicagoSports.com, who think Briggs will sign).

More importantly, I don’t see nearly that many people talking about the impact of loosing defensive coordinator Ron Rivera (who took a demotion to join the Chargers as linebackers coach.  If someone can explain that one to me, please do…).  True, Lovie Smith is a defensive whiz, and new defensive coordinator Bob Babich has worked with him for the last 4 years, but Rivera was the one who coached the Bears stellar defenses for the last 2 years.  You have to think this might cause at least a slight drop-off in their performance.

Lastly, check out the Bears schedule.  True, they get six game with their divisional cream puffs, but they start the season on the road again the Chargers, also get Dallas, Philadelphia, Seattle, Denver, and finish up against the Saints.  I think everything is pointing to a down season for the Bears this year.

The Prediction: 8-8, 2nd place NFC North

Minnesota Vikings (2006 results:  6-10):

Sometimes a season can be defined by one game.  Take the ‘06 Vikings for example.  They started the year a surprising 4-2, led by a strong rushing game and a defense that was giving up less than 16 points per game.  They were riding a wave of enthusiasm and excitement.

Then they played the Patriots on Monday Night Football…

The Pats dismantled the Vikes on primetime 31-7, and Minnesota was never the same, only winning twice more en route to a 6-10 campaign.

(On a personal note, as a Pats fan this was the PERFECT game to watch at a strip club, which several of us did.  The game was safely put away by halftime, so we were able to concentrate on other entertainment options for the entire 2nd half.  Now THAT was a fun night…right Lexus?)

…where the hell was I?  Right, Vikings preview.

Really, two things stand out about them right now.  First, they were the masters of the “wait, they signed who?…for how much?” quote in free agency.  Specifically by signing TE Visanthe Shiancoe to a five-year, $18.2 million deal and WR Bobby Wade to a five-year, $15 million contract.  That’s $33.2 million for a # 3 wideout and a back-up tight-end.  AWESOME.

Second would be the person throwing to these targets, and that would be 2nd year QB Tarvaris Jackson.  Jackson didn’t exactly light things up in his first two starts and the end of last season (both losses); in week 16 against the Packers, he threw for only 27 yards, and the Vikings set a franchise record by only getting three first downs the whole game.  Other than that, he looked great.

True, Rome wasn’t built in a day, but the ‘07 season looks like the year when Tarvaris will begin laying the foundation, which could make for some serious growing pains for the Vikes.  Of course, they have the immortal Brooks Bollinger waiting in the wings, so they’ve got that going for them.

Oh, did I mention they also lost their defensive coordinator (Mike Tomlin) in the off-season?  As I said with the Bears and Ron Rivera, this is a big deal.  Especially considering that the consensus opinion on Tomlin is that he’s going to be an excellent head coach.

On the positive side, the Vikings could have one of the best rushing offenses in the league this year thanks to running backs Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson, who will run behind an above average O-line led by stud guard Steve Hutchinson.  On the negative side, a good rushing attack does little for you when you team is down 27-10 by halftime, a position the Vikings could be in quite frequently this year.

The Prediction: 5-11, 4th place NFC North

Green Bay Packers (2006 results:  8-8):

When it comes right down to it, I’m a sentimental schmuck.  Like many others out there, I WANTED to pick the Pack to win the division this year.  I wanted to see Favre win one more home playoff game at Lambeau field before riding off into the sunset…

(translated:  before getting walloped in the 2nd round.  Riding off into the sunset just sounds better, doesn’t it?)  

Sadly, I just can’t do it.

For starters, who’s going to be running the ball for these guys?  Vernand Morency?  Noah Herron?  Brandon Jackson?  Corey Dillon?  Also, Favre could have used one more veteran wide receiver or tight end to throw to.  Didn’t get it, so he’ll have to rely on Greg Jennings and Bubba “hands-like-feet” Franks.  

On defense, the Packers have some up-and-coming studs in DE Aaron Kampman (15.5 sacks) and LB A.J. Hawk, but still have some big holes in the middle at defensive tackle and safety.  The corners are solid with veterans Charles Woodson and Al Harris, but both players are in their early 30’s.

As for Favre?  We’ll talk more about him in a minute, but suffice to say for now that at age 37 (38 come October), he just doesn’t have the mojo he used to.  Overall, this is a very young team with a very veteran gun slinger at the helm.  Do they have enough right now to make that Lambeau Leap?  Unfortunately, I think they fall just short.

The Prediction: 7-9, 3rd place NFC North

Which leaves one team left to win the division…

Detroit Lions (2006 results:  3-13):

I’ll wait a minute for you to stop laughing…

Go ahead, take your time…

…

(OK, it’s not THAT funny)

Here’s the reasoning.  First let’s talk about quarterbacks, since they are so crucial to the overall success of your team (and yes, I realize Rex led the Bears to the Super Bowl.  I’m making that an exception to the rule…).

Here are the quarterback ratings of the four starters in the NFC North at the end of last season:

A) 79.9
B) 73.9
C) 72.7
D) 62.5

You’d take option A, right?  Congratulations, you just picked Jon Kitna as your starting QB.  B is Grossman, C is Favre (yes, Favre fell BELOW Grossman - what does that tell you?), and D is Jackson in 4 total appearances.

Also of note, Kitna is the only quarterback in this group who’s targets improved considerably in the off-season, thanks to the drafting of stud to be Calvin Johnson.  They also included ex-Rams WR Shaun McDonald who’s nothing special, but consider he’s the # 4 guy behind Roy Williams, Johnson and the scrappy Mike Furrey, who had 98 catches and 1,086 yards last season, and you’re talking about another potential “Greatest Show on Turf” for offensive coordinator Mike Martz.  (IMPORTANT NOTE:  Johnson and the Lions are at an impass thus far regarding contract negotiations; if he holds out I officially (and conveniently) retract everything I’ve written in this preview.)

Detroit also made moves to improve their porous offensive line, signing veteran left guard Edwin Mulitalo (from Baltimore) and right tackle George Foster (from Denver).  Neither player is a stud, but they are both experienced starters from solid o-lines, and offer an improvement over what the Lions previously had.  Who knows, maybe these signings will motivate resident fatty Damien Woody to round into shape…

On defense, the Lions front seven could be very interesting to watch this season.  DT Corey Redding was recently signed (and probably overpaid) to a huge contract, but he does provide the team with a solid young anchor in the middle of the line.  Defensive ends Dewayne White and Kalimba Edwards have potential, but neither has had more than 6.5 sacks in a season yet.  However, if one of them has a breakthrough this year (keep an eye on White), the line could become a handful for opponents.  Another player to watch is OLB Ernie Sims, who started every game last season as a rookie and registered 124 tackles.

Don’t get me wrong, there are still plenty of holes on this Lions team.  The rest of the linebacker corp and the secondary are a mess, the running back situation is a question mark (although they now have 2 options in free agent signee Tatum Bell and the oft-injured Kevin Jones), and they need to work on their special teams.  However there is one other plus you have to look at, and that’s head coach Rod Marinelli.

Everything you hear from the Detroit Press and from Lions players seems to be positive this year, especially in regards to the head coach.  Check out this quote from the newly signed Cory Redding (care of the Detroit Free Press via the AOL Fanhouse:

“His relationship to me is second-to-none,” Redding said Monday. “He’s by far the best teaching coach, the best player’s type of coach, the best everything that I’ve been around. … I’m talking about when he looks you in your eyes, you know you’re talking to a man of character, a man that you know whatever he says he’s going to do.”

Yes, it’s just talk from a guy who just signed a big fat contract, but you have to admit, Marinelli is doing a good job of keeping and rewarding the guys he wants, while getting rid of malcontents (like Dre Bly and James Hall).  That’s exactly what you want to see a 2nd year coach do.  It’s what Bill Belichick did after his first season, when the Pats went 5-11, and we all know how that turned out…

No, I’m not calling Marinelli the 2nd coming of B.B., and yes, more than a few things have to break right for the Lions this season. But I’m telling you, the Bears will be a weaker team, and both the Pack and the Vikes didn’t get the personnel they needed to make significant progress. The opportunity is there for the taking, and I say the optimistic Lions and their determined head coach reach out & grab it.

The Prediction: 9-7, 1st place NFC North

Of course, there is a huge downside to all this; it means we get to hear this guy gloat all off-season long:

And that’s a lose-lose situation for everyone.

NFL Preview, 2007, Regular Season, Predictions, NFC North, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, no I’m not on crack, in fact now I hope I’m wrong