2007 NFC West Preview: Changing of the Guard
The 4th Talking NFL Division Preview. Links to past previews:
I love the changing of the guard…
Not THAT changing of the guard (nice hat - can that dude see anything?).
The NFL changing of the guard, where a team that has dominated a division for years finally succumbs to the young upstart team that triumphantly displaces it, usually in an emotionally charged game near the end of the season.
Fittingly, this changing of the guard will take place in the NFC West this year, which has had it’s share of dramatic baton-passing seasons. In 1981, the San Francisco 49ers overtook the then L.A. Rams en route to their first Super Bowl. It was the beginning of the 49ers dynasty, and the end of the Rams run of 7 division titles in 8 years. It would take nearly 20 years and a different home city, but the Rams took back the division in 1999, and went on to their first Super Bowl win. The Rams would win 2 of the next 3 division crowns before falling to the Seahawks in 2004. The Hawks have now won the NFC West 3 straight times.
Now we have come full circle, and the 49ers look positioned to retake the division.
(actually, it’s more like a full triangle with the Cardinals sitting off to the side watching jealously…work with me here…)
San Francisco 49ers (2006 results: 7-9):
Doesn’t it seem like there aren’t any solid long-term rebuilding plans for NFL franchises these days? Not like they used to have in the good old days, at least. The Steelers of the 70’s and the Cowboys of the 90’s were patient; they put the players & coaches they needed in place to succeed, let them grow together, and were rewarded with dynasties. Nowadays (minus the Colts & Steelers), you don’t have those long term build-ups to championship teams. You either win immediately (like the Patriots & Jets), or you have teams like the Browns and the Texans where the fans are saying, “do these guys have a CLUE, let alone a plan?!”
Enter the modern day Niners, poised to break-out in the 3rd year of their rebuilding plan. After a disastrous ‘04 campaign, they blew up the works. They drafted Alex Smith with the #1 pick, hired coach Mike Nolan, and waited out their time in salary-cap hell. This off-season, they went bat-out-of-hell-shit crazy with their spending, shelling out nearly $40 million in guaranteed money on just 4 defensive players. They added linebacking beast Patrick Willis through the draft, and traded their 4th round pick to Seattle for WR Darrell Jackson, thereby strengthening themselves while weakening a division rival.
RB Frank Gore broke-out last year, and look for TE Vernon Davis to do the same this year. Lastly, the bottom quarter of their schedule (home vs Minnesota, home vs Cincinnati, home vs Tampa Bay, away at Cleveland) screams stretch run to the playoffs. By the way, keep an eye on OLB Tully-Banta Cain. He was just starting to emerge with the Pats last year & has a great burst off the edge. Double-digit sack numbers as a full time player isn’t out of the question.
…apparently, he’s like to play grab-ass as well, which means he’ll fit right in San Fran…(I kid, I kid!)
I love this team this year, perhaps unreasonably so. All bets are off if Alex Smith doesn’t progress, but I’m betting that he does. And considering it’s the NFC (New Freaking Champ every year), it’s looking more and more like the Patriots may not have gotten such a great deal on the 49ers 1st round draft pick next year…
The Prediction: 11-5, 1st place NFC West
St. Louis Rams (2006 results: 8-8):
I want to like these guys better than I do. Really. Bulger/Jackson/Holt is as solid an offensive trio you’ll see throughout the league, and they get pro-bowler OT Orlando Pace back after he missed the last 7 games last season with a torn triceps. They finished strong last year as well, winning their last 3 games.
But that run defense, ranked 31st in the league last year, is still a problem. Their off-season solution was to bring in decent DE James Hall from the Lions and draft DE Adam Carriker and move him to DT. Not sure that will be enough help…
Also, did you know last season was the first one that 30-year old Marc Bulger played all 16 games? The Rams better hope that their new $65 million dollar man stays healthy again this season.
Don’t get me wrong. Overall, I still like these guys & think they’ll improve. Just not as much as the 49ers.
The Prediction: 9-7, 2nd place NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (2006 results: 5-11): Let me ask you a question; have you ever had a really great day, then had it blown to hell after listening to someone else bitch about their crappy day?
Say (just for an example), you drove nearly 600 miles in one day, just for a half-hour business meeting. And let’s say that I you nailed it - perhaps the most pivotal meeting of your career. You get on the horn & tell your significant other the great news. She (hypothetically) responds by telling you all about this d-bag bartender at the restaurant she works at who gave her such a hard time it brought her to tears. So now you’re (assumedly) all worked up & want to be the crap out of this guy. To which she replies, “oh, I’m over it now, but I just wanted to share. I’ve got to go out with the girls now. Buh bye!” So now she’s off having fun, while you’re great mood is destroyed, and you’re looking to run the next guy off of I-15 that so much as looks at you funny. Hypothetically, wouldn’t that piss you the f#$k off?
Well let me tell you, it would definitely get me pissed (supposedly). Next time, I’d just tell her right off the bat, “look, was your honor impugned enough so that I need to physically go after this guy?” If the answer is yes, fine; give me a couple months to get my ass back into shape and I’m all over it. If the answer is no, then do me a favor and don’t tell me about it, OK? It will only upset me, along with all these nice ladies here in the champagne room. Thanks, sweetie. Buh bye!
(and, no, this has nothing to do with the Cardinals. I’ve all ready said they’re going 8-8. But thanks for reading, I just needed to vent.)
The Prediction: 8-8, 3rd place NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (2006 results: 9-7, lost in NFC Divisional Round):
Veteran football teams are like aging porn stars; when they go downhill, it happens quickly and it’s horrifying to watch. Take Jenna Jameson, for example. Just a couple of years ago, she was hot as balls. Now…
Yeeuggh. What the hell happened?
Anyways, I think this visually mimics the upcoming train wreck that will be the 2007 Seahawks. Why would I say that, when may experts have them winning the division a 4th year in a row? Consider:
- They went 1-3 against the 49ers and Cardinals last year, and both those teams look better this year.
- Five starters on offense will be in their 30’s.
- One of those starters, Shaun Alexander, is facing questions and scrutiny like this after a sub-par, injury plagued, Madden cursed ‘06. If he’s not 100%, Plan B is career back-up Maurice Morris, who has 1 TD in 5 seasons. Sweet.
- Another starter, QB Matt Hasselbeck? Overrated. (His wife? IMMENSELY OVERRATED.)
- Say what you want about departed WR Darrell Jackson, but he did score 10 TD’s for the Hawks last year & that production will need to come from somewhere else. D.J. Hackett came on late in the season, but neither he, Deion Branch or Bobby Engram are #1 calibur wideouts.
- Say what you want about departed TE Jerramy Stevens (OK, there’s ALOT to be said about him), but it’s hard to call 35-year old Marcus Pollard a big improvement…
- Still suffering from the loss of Guard Steve Hutchinson, the Seahawks courted prize free agent Kris Dielman. After a rather soggy Seattle visit, Kris said this to his agent:
“I told him, ‘Get me out of here, man. Get me home, back to sunny San Diego.’ “
Suffice to say, Dielman re-signed with the Chargers.
- Their weakest position, defensive line, is counting on two players (free agent DE Patrick Kerney and DT Marcus Tubbs) that are coming back from surgery on recent injuries (Kerney a torn pectoral, Tubbs a knee microfracture).
I think the rest of the division is primed to move up while the Seahawks slide just enough so that everyone else passes them. Keep in mind, we’re only talking about a 3 game swing here. But when it happens, it happens quick and it ain’t pretty to watch. Much like Jenna’s next movie…y-yikes.
The Prediction: 6-10, 4th place NFC West
NFL Preview, 2007, Regular Season, Predictions, NFC West, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, aging porn stars
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