Talking NFL

Here’s Part 2 of the Top 10 Fantasy Studs for 2007.  (click here for Part 1)

(6) Running Back - Frank “The Tank” Gore (49ers)

Full Disclaimer:  I nabbed this sleeper in the 4th round of my fantasy draft last year, so this pick is entirely about stroking myself.  Nevertheless, this kid is the real deal.  1,695 rushing  yards last year (3rd in the league), and a ridiculous 5.4 yard per carry average.  Plus he’s only 24 years old, and should continue to be the center piece of an improving 49er offensive scheme for years to come.

Yes, he only had 8 rushing TD’s, and he lost 6 fumbles.  I think the 49ers offensive is going to be more robust this season, which will only help his TD totals, and the fumbles are not a major issue (yes, I’m writing that to convince myself that it’s not a big deal…man, I wish they’d never outlawed Stickum…).

(7) Quarterback - Tom Brady (Patriots)

I’ve got Brady ahead of Brees for two reasons:  first, Brady has the more consistent numbers to back him up; he’s averaged 3,743 yards passing and 25.8 TD passes per season over the last 5 years.  Second, those numbers should only increase thanks to all those shinny news toys he received in the off-season.

True, Brees had a ridiculous season last year, but his 5 year averages come out to 3,309 yards passing and 21 TDs.  True, the Saints have much better receiving weapons than the Chargers did (and still do), and they get to fly around in a dome.  However, when it comes to pulling the trigger on a stud QB, I like to see consistent numbers rather than a one-year spike that may or may not be duplicated.  Maybe that’s just me.

(Hey, how about me breaking out the slide rule to crunch those numbers for you, huh?  Talking NFL = High. Tech. Shit.)

(8) Tight End - Antonio Gates (Chargers)

You should think of Gates the way fantasy leagues used to think of Tony Gonzalez; he’s the #1 tight end out there by a wide margin, and worth a high round pick to distance yourself from your competitors at the position.

Last year was basically an off-year for the All Pro, hauling in only 9 (only?) TD passes, whereas he hit double digits in the previous 2 years.  Much of that can be attributed to working with new QB, Philip Rivers.  Now Rivers should be much more comfortable with the offense. Also, keep in mind that new coach Norv Turner was the primary architect behind the Chargers offense which he constructed in 2001 as offensive coordinator.  Say what you want about his head coaching abilities (and I have - and I will again…), but he does bring continuity to the Bolts offense.

Finally, Gates is still the #1 receiving target in an otherwise sub par receiving group.  Rookie Craig Davis from LSU could be a breakout deep threat; if so, that will only help open up the middle of the field for Gates, who should continue running roughshod over mis-matched safeties and cornerbacks for years to come.

By the way, the #2 tight end in total fantasy points last year was Alge Crumpler.  To say his situation this season is tenuous due to the Michael Vick off-season saga is an understatement.  Let’s put it this way; the day I recommend a stud receiver who may spend half the year attempting to corral passes from one Joey Harrington is the same day I post male cheerleader pictures on this site and a link to Playgirl…

(9) Wide Receiver - Chad Johnson (Bengals)

Last year was a frustrating year for owners of the Chaz.  He only scored 2 TD’s over the first 8 games of the season.  Then, right when some owners decided to bench him, he exploded for 5 TD’s in Weeks 10 & 11.  Fantasy teams scrambled to put him back in for the playoff stretch run, and he never scored again.  This caused a fantasy forum bitch session rivaled only by the untimely death of Kurt Warner in 2002.

So with his stock slightly down, I’m highly recommending #85 this season.  Why?  Because, as I alluded to with Alge Crumpler above, I highly believe that when you’re choosing a wide receiver, you need to strongly consider who throwing the ball to him.  So when you look at the mass of top-tier wide receivers in the league (after the Colts duo), it looks this way:

Lee Evans - J.P. Loseman
Donald Driver - Brett Favre
Steve Smith - Jake Delhomme and/or David Carr
Chad Johnson - Carlson Palmer

…need I say more?  Actually yes; how about Roy Williams and (gulp) Jon Kitna?

Carson Palmer is an elite level QB, and Ocho Cinco is still his #1 target (although Whoseyourmomma is catching up…), so I’m picking him over the above group of wideouts.

As for another QB/WR relationship you can trust:

(10) Wide Receiver - Torry Holt (Rams)

Marc Bulger is one of the more underrated quality QB’s in the league, and Torry Holt is his #1 target.  Combine that with formerly mentioned stud RB Steven Jackson, and it’s a newer version of the old Greatest Show On Turf the Rams had in the late 90’s and early 00’s (we still haven’t come up with a better way to call this decade have we?  Ugh…).  True, it’s not the same, but the one component that is the same is Torry (yes, he’s 31 this year, but that much better than 35), so he get’s my vote for the final stud position.

Update: The FanHouse provided a link this morning to an article from St. Louis Today, which indicated that Marc Bulger ‘might consider a holdout’ , as he’s going into the last year of a low value contract. Bulger was quoted as saying “I don’t think it’s going to happen, but you never know. I don’t want to rule anything out.” So keep an eye on this situation, since Torry’s draft stock is obviously tied to Bulger.

To recap, here’s the top 10, in order of overall studliness:

(1) Running Back - LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers)
(2) Running Back - Steven Jackson (Rams)
(3) Quarterback - Peyton Manning (Colts)
(4) Running Back - Frank Gore (49ers)
(5) Wide Receiver - Reggie Wayne (Colts)
(6) Quarterback - Tom Brady (Patriots)
(7) Wide Receiver - Chad Johnson (Bengals)
(8) Defense - Baltimore Ravens
(9) Tight End - Antonio Gates (Chargers)
(10) Wide Reciever - Torry Holt (Rams)

NOTE:  I’m NOT saying this is what your draft order should look like, I’m saying these are the players to place a high premium on, and if you take them earlier than they’re projected by ESPN, SI, CBSSportsline (or whomever else you get your top 150-200 player list from), don’t worry.  You should be just fine.

Unless your top pick shreds his ACL in Week 1.  Then you’re screwed.  (Isn’t Fantasy Football FUN?!)

Next up:  This year’s Value Picks

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