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How to Dominate in Fantasy Football, Step 4a: The Sleepers

by Brian

Here’s my favorite part of any fantasy football draft - the sleeper picks!  Much like Sophie here, this is going to be awesome…

sophiemonk_l5.jpgShhhh…don’t wake up the hottie…

Before we begin, however, a quick rant:  there are WAY too many fantasy football sites out there that are abusing the term “sleeper” (I’m not linking them - you know who you are…).  Let’s get this straight:  a sleeper is NOT a player that you’ve heard of before that is primed for a comeback year.  That’s a COMEBACK player.  And a sleeper is not a household name that is undervalued:  that is a VALUE pick.  A sleeper is a dude that you’ve either never heard of before, or when you hear the name, you think it might be an old college buddy you used to party with (Frank Gore?  Yeah, big guy, right?  Farted all the time…smelled badly…).

I actually read one site that called Fred Taylor a sleeper pick.  Sorry, Fred Taylor is not a sleeper pick.  Nor is his groin.  Or his hamstring.  Or whatever part of his body it is that decides to explode this year.  Don’t even get me started about Fragile Fred in ‘01 - “questionable” for 14 straight @#$%* weeks, my ass.  I got the answer to your “questionable” right here, you gimpy son-of-a-

….

Ah, dammit.

….

I went off on a tangent again, didn’t I?

….

Uhhhhh…

….

Seriously, what the f#@k was I talking about?

….

RIGHT!  Sleepers!!

Running Back - Jerious Norwood (Falcons)

CBSSportsline Ranking:  #82 Overall
Talking NFL Ranking:  #68 Overall

Speaking of the difference between a sleeper and a value pick; I nearly called Norwood a value pick, but he’s ranked so low on the CBS board that he qualified as a high-end sleeper (again, leave it to CBS to absolutely baffle us.  They don’t even have Norwood in the Top 32 Running Backs?!  Scandalous!)

Look, it’s easy to write off the Falcons for dead right now.  Yet despite all the off-season turmoil, and the fact that Joey Harrington is their starting QB, they will put an offense on the field, and that offense will score touchdowns.

So who’s going to get in the endzone?  Not Vick (he is hoping NOT to score so much this year), and not Warrick Dunn for the first part of the season either; he’s still recovering from back surgery.  That leaves a huge opportunity for Norwood to expand on the gaudy 6.4 yard per carry average he boasted in ‘06.

11789179451press822200734013am.jpg

Let’s keep the expectations tempered; the Falcons will struggle this year, and Norwood can’t replace all the run production they will lose with Vick.  But he’s young, a legitimate home-run hitter, and the city of Atlanta desperately needs a new football hero.  The role is there for Jerious Norwood’s taking.

Wide Receiver - Wes Welker (Patriots)

CBSSportsline Ranking:  #156 Overall
Talking NFL Ranking:  Higher than #156 Overall

Now before those of you that were burned by the Matt Jones experiment (like Dennis D) start howling in protest, let’s break this pick down very clearly:

1187437081_5348.jpg

Wes Welker is going to be the new Troy Brown for the Patriots.  

Not the Troy Brown of last year, or the Troy Brown of ‘01 that had 101 catches.  More like the Troy Brown of ‘97, who was the #3 option for Bledsoe, and put up over 600 receiving yards and 6 TD’s.  

8656029451press822200741614am.jpg

He’ll be the possession receiver that Brady looks for on 3rd down or when he gets in trouble.  And although he’s not as sexy as Randy Moss (#48 Overall) or Donte Stallworth (#88 Overall), he’ll be more consistent.  Remember, the Patriots are infamous for playing match-ups, and some players might score 2 TD’s in one game, only to be shut-out the following week.  Welker should be a constant go-to guy for Brady, and that means consistent (albeit unspectacular) numbers, which is what you want from a #3 WR or flex player.

(Note: sorry, I’m not giving an overall ranking on Wes.  It’s getting close to draft day, and since I’m from New England, I know every other player in our league is gunning for the new great white hope as well.  So I can’t give away the value I’m putting on him.)

Sorry, I just don’t know you well enough yet.  But keep the faith; maybe I’ll give it up to you later.

(…we’re still talking about football, right?)

Running Back - Kenny Irons (Bengals)

Yes, I know he’s on IR.  Allow me yet another slightly off-topic rant.

I LOVED this kid.  Perfect change of pace back for Rudi Johnson, and I figured he would steal more of his TD’s that many people thought.  In addition, I’m in a one-player keeper league, and Rudi is one guy’s keeper.

I had it all planned out.  9th or 10th round, I was going to slap Irons name to the board, look at Josh, give him a maniacal grin, and say, “you’re going to HATE this guy!”  It was going to be perfect.  Now the moment is completely ruined.  

Nice going, Kenny.  You douche.

Tight End - Eric Johnson (Saints)

CBSSportsline Ranking:  Not Ranked
Talking NFL Ranking:  #144 Overall

l_image11432118fbd9388fad031f97193.jpg

I’m telling you, I just love CBS Sportsline.  Here’s their analysis for the former San Fran tight end who lost his job to stud-in-the-making Vernon Davis:

Johnson has been good at practice, and QB Drew Brees has targeted him as a red-zone option, but until he starts to perform well regularly, Fantasy owners cannot view him as anything more than a low-end No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late-round pick.

Translated:  Johnson will score some TD’s for the Saints, but until it actually happens, we’re not going to say that it’s actually going to happen.  By then, some other schmuck in your league will have picked this guy up & you will be cursing our names.  Have fun with that…

Sorry kids, I’m too drunk tired to go on.  More sleepers coming next week.

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