Talking NFL

As we get closer to the Big Tournament (as Mr. Parcells likes to call it), there are a few assumptions we can make about what might happen in the NFL come January:

- With AFC teams vastly outplaying their counterparts in the NFC (they currently hold a 38-22 edge in inter-league play), it appears likely the Superbowl Champ will come from the AFC.
- The teams with the best records in the AFC (San Diego, Baltimore, Indianapolis, and New England), are also the division leaders, making them the favorites to be in Miami come February 4th.
- Donald Trump makes a guest appearance on The View to apologize to Rosie O’Donnell in person, and they make out for 5 minutes straight.

OK, I feel confident about two out of three of those, so let’s discuss the AFC favorites further. While Indy looked much better on Monday night against the Bengals, their run defense remains a bit, shall we say, suspect. As for the Patriots, they man-handled the Texans, but did so with a wide receiver corps that stretches the field about as well as K-Fed handles a marriage. Both these flaws could prove fatal in the playoffs.

As for the Chargers, everyone has them rated #1 in their precious power polls, and the national lovefest for LT has reached epic proportions. After shattering the single season TD record, it’s certainly well deserved. And thanks to some huge performances in nationally televised games, all the focus is on San Diego, and everyone seems to have them pre-ordained as the winner of Superbowl 41.

And nobody’s talking about the Ravens, who might be the real team to beat.

Very quietly, Baltimore has posted an 11-3 record, thanks mostly to the #1 ranked defense in the league. But it also has a great deal to do with the resurgent Steve McNair (I wonder what he sent Titans execs for Christmas?), and a steady running game from Jamal Lewis. Is it uber-sexy, like LT’s 1,626 yards rushing and 5.2 per carry average? No, not all. In fact, I got sweaty just typing that last part. But it sounds an awful like their recipe for success when they won it all in 2000, doesn’t it?

Another factor to consider is Chargers QB Philip Rivers, who followed up his selection to the Pro Bowl by pulling his best Ryan Leaf impersonation last week against the Chiefs, going 8 out of 23 for 97 yards with no TD’s and 2 picks. Perhaps it was a one-time thing, or could it be the start of a trend? He’s essentially a rookie, unlike Baltimore’s battle tested QB, who’s as tough as they come. (Despite injuring his right hand last week, and leaving the game against the Browns, he’s not even on the injury report this week)

This weekend should tell the tale of where these teams end up seeded in the AFC. Both face tough away games, (Ravens at Steelers, Chargers at Seahawks) and then finish up against cream-puffs (the Bills and Cardinals, respectively). Right now, the Chargers have the #1 seed, and the Ravens the #3. But if the Chargers and Colts both stumble, the door is open for the Ravens to take home field advantage in the playoffs. And seeing as they’ve already stomped the Steelers 27-0 less than a month ago, they are probably the least likely to lose.

Speaking of past victories, who else have the Ravens beat? Oh, right – the Chargers back in Week 4, by a 16-13 score. In that game, they were able to hold LT to less than 100 yards rushing and under 4 yards per carry.

Lastly, we need to address the playoff record of the coaches. They both have 5 playoff wins. However, Brian Billick has only 2 loses. As for Marty? How about 12. And go ahead and ask any Chargers fan how they’ll feel if their team is tied in a playoff game with 2 minutes to go. I guarantee the response will include either the phrase ‘sphincter flare up’ or ‘throw up in my mouth’.

The Ravens have some serious advantages over the Chargers on their side. It’s just that nobody’s mentioning them. I’m guessing they’re just fine with that for now.