Talking NFL

With free agency less than 24 hours away, we’re taking a look at one of the most intriguing group of players ready to hit the open market. In 2007, the Patriots wide receivers combined for a gaudy 292 receptions, 3,814 yards and 39 touchdowns. However, the only guys under contract for 2008 are Wes Welker and Chad Jackson, and Chad Jackson didn’t catch a single one of those passes last year. Here’s the Talking NFL rundown on each pending free agent, and the almost certain to be wrong call on who’s hanging around Foxborough, and who’s not…

1. Randy Moss: 98 rec, 1,493 yds, 23 TDs

All eyes are on the “other 81″ to see if he stays with Tom Brady or goes for straight cash, homey. If this was the Moss of three years ago, I’d say he’s gone. But he did his time in purgatory (read: the Raiders), and you get the feeling that he knows just how good he has it in New England.

If he were to leave, it would have to be for BOTH big dollars and to a team with a star QB. Indy and Dallas are doubtful with stars like Reggie Wayne and T.O. all ready in place. Pittsburgh is interesting with Big Ben’s off-season whine request for wideouts who are taller than the not-so-diminutive Hines Ward, but they’re pretty tight against the cap as it is.

This one just seems to make too much sense to both sides not to get done. The only question is for how many years. Randy will be 31 at the start of next season, and even superstar receivers like him have a tendency to hit the wall at age 35. Under his old contract with the Raiders, he was scheduled to make $11.25 million in 2008. He’ll take a bit of a discount to stay with the Patriots, but not by much. And the Patriots will splurge a bit to keep him.

Prediction: Stays with Patriots, signs 4-year contract worth $36 million

(Update: Just after posting this, I saw this article by Sean Jensen over at AOL Sports. If he’s right, then I’m off by one year and about $6 million.)

2. Donte’ Stallworth: 46 rec, 697 yds, 3 TDs

If it weren’t for Randy Moss, I’d say that Donte’ would be staying. They were tied on average yards per catch at 15.2, and Donte’ was at times absolutely electrifying after the catch. He brought a play making ability that reminded many of a healthy Deion Branch.

However, he disappeared for long stretches, had some key drops, and lost more 1-one-1 matchups than he should have. The Patriots have all ready declined to pick up the optional years on Donte’s contract, and he will surely see some interest in the open market.

Prediction: Leaves Patriots, signs with Baltimore Ravens

3. Jabar Gaffney: 36 rec, 449 yds, 5 TDs

While most fans (including myself) expected Wes Welker to become the next Troy Brown, it was actually Jabar Gaffney who morphed into the key #3 option and 3rd down possession receiver that Brady frequently sought out in a pinch.

After a solid ‘07 campaign, Jabar could certainly look to cash in during free agency. However, there’s a few mitigating factors here: first, it was the Patriots who picked Jabar up off the scrap heap in 2006 when nobody else wanted him. Second, he spent the first four years of his career with the hapless Houston Texans, and you know he’ll think twice about signing with yet another potential basement dweller. He’s all ready won more games playing with the Patriots in 1 1/2 years than he did during his entire career with the Texans.

It’s true that the Patriots won’t overpay for a mid-level player like Gaffney, and that the free agent market on wide receivers is rather bare, so a better monetary offer should be out there. But this is another one that seems like it makes too much sense for both sides to pass up.

Prediction: Stays with Patriots, signs 5-year contract worth $17 million

4. Kelley Washington: 0 rec, 0 yds, 0 TDs

Of all the Patriots wide receiver free agents to-be, Kelley Washington’s case is the most fascinating. Looking only at his stats above, you’d figure that the Patriots would cut ties after his one-year test contract and never look back. But Kelley was a standout special teams player, frequently downing the ball within an opponents 5-yard line, and registering a key block against the Jets in Week 15.

In addition, just like Moss and Gaffney, Washington has done his time with a lesser team (and since it was with the Bengals, the doing time analogy is rather apropos…), so the Patriots are an appealing option.

I think Kelley’s future is directly linked to that of Gaffney’s. If Gaffney stays, then Kelley goes to a team that can offer him a chance to catch more balls. If Gaffney leaves, then the Patriots give him that chance in New England. So for this scenario, I say he goes, unfortunately…

Prediction: Leaves Patriots, signs with Tennessee Titans

5. Troy Brown: 557 rec, 6,366 yds, 31 TDs (career)

It may happen next week, it may not happen until July. But a some point this year, there will be an announcement from Gillette Stadium that Troy Brown has retired after 14 seasons with the New England Patriots. When it happens, I will join the rest of Patriot nation and send a note of thanks and congratulations to the consummate team player who did whatever his coaches asked of him, and came up huge in some of the biggest games in NFL history.

Prediction: Leaves Patriots, rides off into the sunset